THE The second round of the Champions League league phase ended with another victory for Sporting (over Lens, at the Stade Bollaert-Delelis, 0-2) and another defeat for FC Porto (against Real Betis, at the Estadio de La Cartuja, 3-2), which means that the two Portuguese representatives are experiencing radically different scenarios.
The lions are part of the group of nine leaders, with six points won out of six possible (along with Paris Saint-Germain, Barcelona, ​​Aston Villa, Stuttgart, Liverpool, Arsenal, Real Madrid and Real Betis), while the dragons live at the bottom of the table, at ‘zero’ (such as Internazionale, Slavia Prague, Napoli, LASK Linz, Lille, Galatasaray and Slovan Bratislava).
Still, there’s no reason to panic… or euphoria. This is because the most recent predictions made by the Opta supercomputer, a company specialized in processing sports data, point to both eternal rivals finishing this phase in the playoff access zone.
In the case of the green and white emblem, the expectation is that it will be ranked ninth, with between 14 and 15 points. As for the blue and whites, the algorithm estimates that the scenario is not as serious as it seems, as it will be possible to add nine to ten points, which would leave them in 22nd position in the table, at the end of the eight rounds.
If confirmed, in the next phase, Rui Borges’ men would compete for access to the round of 16 with Shakhtar Donetsk or Feyenoord, who are ranked in 23rd and 24th place, respectively. Francesco Farioli’s team, on the other hand, would face Real Betis (once again) or Atlético de Madrid, 11th and 12th, respectively.
How far can Sporting and FC Porto go?
Opta’s algorithm concludes that, at this moment, Sporting has a 51.93% chance of reaching the playoffs in what is the biggest club competition in European football. The round of 16 has a 46.08% chance, the ‘quarters’ 36.44%, the ‘semi’ 14.34% and the final 4.81%, so it can be said that the scenario is encouraging.
FC Porto, on the other hand, doesn’t have that many reasons to smile, as the probability of reaching the playoffs is 56.75%, the ’round of 16′ is 4.13%, the ‘quarter’ is 12.99%, the ‘half’ is 5.30% and the final is a mere 1.76%, taking into account the scenario they are going through at the moment, after two consecutive defeats.
At this moment, the main favorite to become champions of the Old Continent is Arsenal, with a 21.86% chance, ahead of Bayern Munich (16.05%), Manchester City (15.26%), Barcelona (12.34%), Paris Saint-Germain (6.59%), Liverpool (6.24%), Real Madrid (4.99%), Aston Villa (3.20%), Manchester United (1.93%) and Sporting (1.76%).
Next are Internazionale (1.58%), Atlético de Madrid (1.51%), Borussia Dortmund (1.33%), Club Brugge (0.98%), AS Roma (0.68%), Stuttgart (0.61%) and only then FC Porto (0.59%). For now, the only team that has zero chance (i.e., 0.00%) of winning the million-dollar competition is Slovan Bratislava.
